On the whole, the current national market price of the amount or form of Qi. From the beginning of the end of last year, China's real estate market began to adjust this year to speed up the pace down, increase the rate of decline in real estate prices also begin to come down. From the regional point of view, to Shenzhen, Guangzhou and the Pearl River Delta cities represented the beginning of the first adjustment, followed by the Yangtze River Delta, north, central and western regions have begun to adjust.
Sub-region through research, we find that: the eastern part of the depth of the adjustment. Among the Pearl River Delta region: housing prices nationwide "disastrous" this year, house prices have fallen by 20-40%; the Yangtze River Delta region: So far this year, shrinking massive turnover in the third quarter of the price point; Bohai Sea region: Divided city, Beijing dropped a larger space, Shenyang uneventful. Volume decreased in the central region, housing prices began to slightly down, Wuhan situation is fairly severe. Volume fell in the western region of 20-40%, housing prices relatively stable, there was not much room down.
Downturn in the market, there are still four to achieve real estate sales. We are summarized as follows: The first category, a discount greater efforts to market the well-known companies, such as Vanke, R & F, and so on. The second category, ultra-small single-family apartments. The third category, economic supply of houses on the outskirts. The fourth category, type of integrated features, such as Wanda development of a comprehensive commercial projects.
Over the next two years China's real estate market is not very optimistic. We believe: in 2008 the Housing volume in 2007 will be a year-on-year decline, it is estimated to shrink into a 3-4, but housing prices nationwide turning point in the third quarter, the year 2008, year-on-year prices in 2007, still show positive growth But by 2007, up 18% of the (housing) fell sharply to around 5% more likely (in 2006 and is expected to rise close to 4.4 percent). As in 2009, the National Housing turnover will remain in the stagnant, but prices throughout the year in 2008 than in the negative range. In 2010 the country's property market rebound is most likely to bottom.
Since September this year, with the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy," two rooms "by the government to take over a series of incidents, the U.S. sub-loan crisis to deepen further into a financial crisis, and quickly spread to the world. In the international context, also can not be optimistic about the domestic economy in the third quarter GDP growth dropped to 9 percent, the central macro-control policy of being "a security control" to prevent the rapid economic decline in the first 45 days in a row to cut interest rates three times, the frequency of Rare historical high. Central Committee in November issued an unprecedented effort "to invest 4 trillion plan", sounded a clarion call to save the economy.
At home and abroad can not be optimistic about the economic situation, more attention to China's property market. So far this year, the City Housing majority of the volume has shrunk dramatically from the beginning of the third quarter, housing prices have started to decline. In view of this, from the beginning of May, Chengdu, Chongqing, Xian, Nanjing, Hangzhou, and other 18 cities come to rescue the market, and the Ministry of Finance and Central Bank also issued on October 22 related to the rescue package. In that case, China's real estate market situation in the end, the future will be going for some time.
I, the national real estate market can not be optimistic about the overall situatio
From the beginning of the end of last year, China's real estate market began to adjust this year to speed up the pace down, the decline in the rate increase, along with real estate prices begin to come down. From the regional perspective, to Shenzhen, Guangzhou and the Pearl River Delta cities represented the beginning of the first adjustment, followed by the Yangtze River Delta, north, central and western regions have begun to adjust. On the whole, the current national market price of the amount or form of Qi.
Figure 1 from the National Bureau of Statistics over the next two indicators to analyze the national real estate market. The first indicator is the "national housing climate index," which is the industry's response to the economy, in particular, reflected in the market for developers and is expected to invest. Under the plans, we can see that in November 2007 reached a high point, then all the way down this year in October to 99.68, down 1.47 points, in September the same period last year dropped 6.06 points, recession into the interval.
In the first three quarters, the completion of the national investment in real estate development 2,127,800,000,000 yuan, up 26.5 percent, compared to 2007, an increase of 31.8 percent, down significantly. Residential investment 1,550,800,000,000 yuan, an increase of 28.7 percent. Of these, investment in affordable housing 63,800,000,000 yuan, an increase of 19.9 percent, that many governments are still not at full capacity to promote the building of housing security. National real estate development companies to complete development of the land area of 179,000,000 square meters, up 1.6 percent decline.
In the first three quarters, the National Housing 2,404,000,000 square meters of construction area, an increase of 20.3 percent over 2007's 21.5 percent was slightly reduced. The housing construction area of 1,907,000,000 square meters, up 21.2 percent; office building construction area of 81,500,000 square meters, an increase of 8.3 percent over 2007's 12.5 percent decline significantly; commercial space business area of 250,260,000 square meters of construction, an increase of 12% .
As of the end of9, with an area of vacant commodity housing 130,000,000 square meters, up 10.2 percent. The vacant commodity residential 66,410,000 square meters, an increase of 14.1 percent. This is a very worrying indicator of a vacant room area of significant growth, means that the poor sales increase in housing, business capital returns have a greater impact.
The second important indicator of the country's 70 large and medium-sized cities in housing sales price index. China's average real estate sales and housing more related to the structure of the transaction, not better reflect the evolution of the short-term price trajectory. The index of house prices do take this analysis, to better reflect the true price trend.
Figure 2 Analysis on the map, we can see that in monthly house price growth year-on-year, in January 2008 reached a high point in January last year, year-on-year growth of 11.3 percent, followed by accelerated growth rate decline, in October this year, has dropped to 1.6 percent, Is expected in November or December, will be a positive growth into negative growth. The same period last year due to the time span of a year and does not reflect the current situation, comparison, the monthly house price growth than the ring is better able to explain the recent trend of increase in the ring than in the high-point in September last year, then decline until this year, 8 Month of positive growth for the first time into negative growth, the official price point, that is also an official of the National housing prices began to fall, in September continued to decline, this trend will continue to fall in the second half of next year, even in 2010.
Second, the national line on January 23 cities are different from the situation, but both fell more obviou
Next, an analysis of major regional real estate market, in order to facilitate the study, in this city to fall into three categories, first-line cities, cities and second-line third-line cities. According to the Shanghai Real Estate Institute of e-CRIC Chinese real estate decision-making advisory system, in more than 30 large and medium-sized cities, more than half of the city in September than in August volume appeared in varying degrees of reaction, but generally smaller rebound effort. The other half of the city will be dropping down volume, turnover continued to shrink. Overall, the vast majority of the city experienced the coldest in recent years, "nine gold," can be seen the extent of the market downturn. Price performance, most urban housing prices were down there have been signs of preferential discount rate has increased. South China city of the region also experienced a new round of price-cutting wave, early in the prices have fallen by a larger context, many of the properties for sale in September once again brings up the banner of price preference margins are around 10%.
Figure 3 from the domestic supply of goods on the analysis, with the exception of slightly outside of Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen and Guangzhou in the first three quarters of this year have significant growth in supply. In particular, in September, the first-line supply in both cities there have been a significant rise, Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen and supply chain growth, the growth rate of Shenzhen larger year-on-year increase of 123.57 percent.
However, turnover is very unsatisfactory, the first city in the first three quarters of housing turnover into a general decline in five or so. Sept. Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other cities in the warmer signs of volume, mainly pre-marked decline in prices, but Shanghai, Beijing, the two cities still in a very low turnover, compared to the same period last year, with trading volume is in a serious recession.
From analysis of the price, first-line urban housing prices continued to fall. Shanghai second-hand housing price index in August rose for the first time by the changing fall Shanghai in September of goods obvious signs of decline in housing prices, on the whole a total of 50 new properties for sale has pushed the case listed, one after another to take the open-or low-open strategy, and A certain degree of credit. Beijing housing prices dropped
Obvious momentum, the discount real estate efforts to expand again. Shenzhen and Shenzhen continued the momentum of price cuts, most of the items listed on the new preferential rate based on the original idea to increase 5-10%.
Figure 4
2, the second city: a larger volume drop, housing prices steadil
From the analysis of housing supply in the first three quarters in September and most of the second-line cities of goods supply of new housing market than there have been substantial increases. But trading volume was relatively low, most of the city last year, year-on-year volume down into five or so, most of the eastern part of the city; drop a few smaller cities such as Shenyang, Xian, central and western parts of the city. And in September, can not be very optimistic about the performance of the transaction, most of the city is only volume over the same period last year, as the level of February 3, Hefei, Fuzhou, Wuhan and other cities year-on-year decrease of more than 70%, Nanjing, Suzhou, Ningbo, Chengdu and other cities year-on-year decline In all about 80%.
Figure 5 from the closing price analysis, in September, most of the prices of second-line cities loose even more pronounced in some cities to expand further price cut, the more obvious trend of falling house prices. In addition to Hefei in east China has managed to maintain a certain degree of price stability, the other second-tier cities have access to the basic price decline, especially in Nanjing, the most obvious downward trend. North China region, most of the second-tier cities in the current housing prices remained relatively stable, but the price trend in Tianjin have been more clear. Fuzhou in southern China appeared in a new round of price trend. In addition to Zhengzhou in the central and western cities such as the individual prices are still relatively strong, Wuhan, Xi'an, Chengdu, Chongqing and other cities housing prices continued to fall, especially in Vanke, China Shipping Development, and other brand companies dropped the price of lead, around the beginning of the project with Jin, leading to the city significantly increase the rate of decline in housing prices.
Figure 6
3, three-city: the market turnover continued to slum
After two months of continuous turnover remained low, most of the three lines in the city in September has failed to usher in a sharp rebound in sales. Easy to follow China in the UN's 11 cities, six cities in a slight rebound in trading volume, and 5 other cities to continue to decline in volume. Xuzhou, Nanchang, Changchun and other cities than in Central fell by more than 20% of the market downturn and the extent of further. Xuzhou, Changchun, Haikou and other cities this month, housing prices had remained relatively stable, but the developers Yingkang price is the result of shrinking volume, near the end of the repayment under the pressure of the peak is expected in the next few months these cities Housing prices down.
Three Figure 7, the eastern part of the depth of the adjustment, the situation in central division, there was not much room down the wes
1, in the eastern part: the main city of 40-70% of the volume decline in housing prices decrease
(1) of the Pearl River Delta region: housing prices nationwide" disastrous "this year, house prices have fallen by 20-40
Pearl River Delta in China's real estate market, the more mature one of the region, in 2007 to Guangzhou, Shenzhen and the Pearl River Delta cities represented by the group, the real estate market has experienced a rapid growth period after the first adjustment of the situation. Macro-economic situation at home and abroad as a result of changes in the Pearl River Delta in order to export-oriented manufacturing sector as the main body is experiencing the largest in the history of structural adjustment has led to the closure of a large number of small and medium enterprises and relocation, employment began to decline, a direct impact on the region The real estate market.
Pearl River Delta area of the property market in 2007 after several twists and turns experienced from the boiling point to freezing point changes. To the first half of a good, that is, essentially opening the project to go higher, chasing buyers, developers Hard Trading in a Dream, land auction enthusiastically. From the beginning of the fourth quarter, closing the beginning of efforts to weaken and the volume of monthly decline. By the end of macro-control effects of increased pressure on developers funding, the rapid return of funds for the purpose of a major city in the residential market is the supply of heavy volume. Pearl River Delta region as a whole domestic commodity prices were steadily rising trend began to weaken at the end.
Boom real estate market in 2007 to promote the hot land market, the Pearl River Delta region rapidly rising land prices, lowering the standard land prices and the scramble to Wang, land prices in real estate prices in the structure of the increasing proportion and has accelerated Enhance the trend. But in the end, the national policy and control of the property market shrinking volume and other factors affect land bids repeatedly staged phenomenon.
Since 2008, the Pearl River Delta in the property market going through an adjustment period, the price discount or promotion is common, mutually wait-and-see atmosphere. Supply decreased, the volume of the housing market has been shrinking dramatically. An Jiang also by the price to drop out. Residential volume of goods edged up slightly, but buyers wait-and-see sentiment remains strong macro news, the market demand for consumer-oriented rigid, low price, economy of small and medium-sized units to digest the fastest. The land market response, the developer entered the wait-and-see, take to become cautious, making strokes linked to land prices become more rational, the land market bids are still frequent.
Typical analysis of the city: Shenzhen property market, housing prices began to dro
The Third WaveFall in the fluctuations in the price. Shenzhen commodity residential housing prices in January last year to start up until October last year to reach 17,350 yuan record high, then began to fall, but it was not until February of this year, the four-month decline in housing prices and less stable, this is the room Adjust the price of the first stage. From the beginning of March this year, in May to, or greater, with the same time, the increase in trading volume, the market may stimulate the illusion of warmer, 6, 7, the two re-housing prices rose, so-called "reflection of the setting sun." This is the price adjustment of the second phase, the market is very intense game. Followed by the third stage, dominated the buyer, the seller to give up recalcitrant, from the beginning of August, continued to fall. Third Wave fell duration will be longer than the first two waves of 3-4 months, but volatility will reduce and eventually into the medium-term consolidation of the Canadian Yindie.
Figure 8 last year in January compared to the closing price of 10,872 yuan, in October last year, up 60% this year in September to 11,824 average, than in October last year, down 37%. Further downward adjustment of 10-20%, tend to be reasonable, rational and non-Shadie not rule out the emergence of the phenomenon. Of course, we should also take into account the average monthly turnover behind the reasons for changes in the structure of the transaction, but that does not prevent us from the direction for the study. Compared to other cities, Shenzhen start of the first round of adjustment, housing prices declined the most, from the bottom of the market has also recently.
On the Shenzhen market, supply and demand in particular is noteworthy because from the beginning of July last year, has become a supply exceeded demand in this point in time than most of the city for several months in advance, but so far there is no January can be achieved "Salted fish stand up." In addition, the oversupply is a serious, since the beginning of October, almost a month's supply is more than double the volume. In addition to reflecting the market's downturn, but also left a rather serious after-effects: the formation of a larger vacant.
(2) of the Yangtze River Delta region: So far this year, shrinking massive turnover in the third quarter of the price poin
In recent years, with Shanghai as the representative of the real estate market in the Yangtze River Delta shows that the overall trend of stable development, market price support each other. Second quarter of 2007, major cities incremental room, and存量房交易prices experienced a blow-up-style market, highlights the rigidity of the region's strong demand for energy. With the September suite on the second loan provisions of the government's macro-control policies introduced in the fourth quarter of the Yangtze River Delta cities have been entered a stage of adjustment. Throughout the year because of the rapid advance of prices to rise, supported by high prices always.
Over the same period in the Yangtze River Delta area of land supply in the market to shrink significantly, the largest drop nearly 70%. The low volume of land transactions in most of the time, but a pack of hot scenes, speed up land prices, have emerged to Wang, the interpretation of an episode of "bread and flour have your" land of myth. From the beginning of the end of the land by the real estate market adjustment on the secondary market, closing the cold case. Many low-cost land to the reserve price or traded, below the industry expected.
Since 2008, as a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, the housing market has shrunk dramatically and the trading volume and prices remained stable. Volume compared to the same period last year, a decrease of 50% of total market turnover of the poor. Start a new area, built in the area and completion of the area has shrunk, leading to the supply of commodities in the housing market slowdown. March warmer signs of the market, but the lack of support for the latter part of the market is still not out of the shadows. For developers confidence in the market is being sorely tested. To enter in June, the Yangtze River Delta region began to discount the properties for sale, but a smaller discount rate, the market response.
Price stability is an important factor in the supply of land in the same period in the Yangtze River Delta region in general decline for years. Government macro-control effects, in particular the supply of land for residential land supply is dwindling. Downturn in the property market continued to force developers to take a more cautious, resulting in most of the land in upset price has contract, part of the land bids. At present, the market still exist a large number of rigid requirements, however, to be out of the market downturn will take some time for buyers to build market confidence in the future will be the key to the development of the real estate market.
Typical analysis of the city: Shanghai property market, housing prices fall into the second or botto
From the analysis of price, from January 2007, goods in Shanghai housing prices rose stability until June of this year reached its highest point: 17,116 yuan, then fell, but still remain high for consolidation, in September to 13,248 yuan, due to May-July this year, housing prices fluctuate more, we select the average is about 15,700 yuan, more than in January last year of 9528 yuan has risen by 65%. This increase more than 40% of Beijing and Shenzhen are up 60% higher than the number. Of course, housing prices in Shanghai fell by more than the time lag of two months.
Figure 9 prices in September than in January last year, up 40% over May-July high of 16% down. In accordance with our previous price on the measurement of income, housing prices in Shanghai in 2007 on the basis of about 15% lower, but so far this year, even if the holding in September with the average price in December of last year, compared to 11,714 yuan, up 13 %. This means that in September the prices based on the needs of Shanghai's housing prices back around 20% in order to tend to be more reasonable. Under the present circumstances, as in the first three quarters is up, housing prices in Shanghai in 2008 year-on-year in 2007 will increase to a certain extent. But in 2009 the same period last year in 2008, housing prices must be reduced.
From the analysis of the volume, in December last year, Shanghai started by the shortage of housing supply exceeding demand for a reversal, the basic point in time and close to Beijing, but a few months later, the degree of imbalance between supply and demand is far better than Shenzhen, a little better In Beijing until September before a serious imbalance between supply and demand ratio of 1:0.45. That is why I compared them both more optimistic about the property market in Shanghai.
Compared with Shenzhen, Shanghai's housing prices this year can be regarded as completely" put up a desperate struggle, "but with a similar situation in Beijing, finally turning point in the third quarter, the performance of second-hand housing index is more obvious. 2001-2006, the Shanghai six years of second-hand housing index rose a total of more than 60% of the points, 07-08 in the first half, up nearly 50%, obviously irrational prices. We expect from the 2400 high point down to 1800-2000 levels would be a reasonable point, the decline of 20%. From the beginning of August this year, second-hand housing index in Shanghai than have begun to ring down.
(3) of the Bohai Sea region: the divided city, Beijing will fall by a larger space, Shenyan
uneventfulBohai Sea real estate market characterized by the region's largest cities showed a greater differentiation. National Olympic effects together with the prosperity of the property market, so that the Beijing market supply and the rate of increase in house prices in 2007 and the first half of 2008 are ranked in the forefront, compared to the performance of Tianjin is a strong potential and advantages . Dalian in Liaoning Province is the real estate market in the Northeast and even the leader. Qingdao, Shandong Province is the real estate market indicator. At present, the Bohai Sea area real estate market is being severely tested.
Bohai Sea in the property market is characterized by a huge space for development, optimistic about the prospects. The main factor is the country's reform and development strategy will focus on the 1980s from the Pearl River Delta (Shenzhen, Zhuhai, as represented by the development of the SAR), the Yangtze River Delta in the 1990s (represented by the Pudong New Area development), into To the Bohai Sea region (represented by the Tianjin Binhai New Area development). Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian and Qingdao have been or are foreign real estate investors and buyers accounted for a significant proportion of the city, the local inter-regional market.
2007 by the Bohai Sea region based in Liaoning Province, Shandong Province and Hebei Province, the real estate development investment to maintain rapid growth, rose about 31%, 28% and 47%. The three provinces in the area of sales or completion of the area are greater than the gains, a serious shortage situation. Bohai Sea region in the Olympic city driven by factors such as market trading volume rose sharply. With the volume, the Bohai Sea region also experienced a high price, market-heat. At the end of the city are entering a period of adjustment, volume shrinking, housing prices rose slowdown in house prices for individual cities a certain degree of callback, the market gradually to rational development, customers tend to have a rational purchase.
Since 2008, the Bohai Rim cities wait-and-see going on the market, the market traded a cold, appeared in the second quarter of differentiation, most of the city market is still in the doldrums. Bohai Sea area of the city most of the land market traded flat, closing most of the reserve price. For high-price, less the location of the land developers have reservations about. In the market downturn, the developer to take care attitude.
Typical analysis of the city: Beijing property market, housing prices down a larger spac
First, housing prices appear inflection point. Since last January to August this year, Beijing commercial housing price increases stability, during which occasional slight fluctuations. From the closing price point of view, most likely in August to become the highest at the end of the last few years, the price of 14,070 yuan, compared with January of last year's 10,034 yuan, an increase of 40%. Started to decline in September, the ring than in August fell 10.04 percent, this was a significant drop in both sales discount the reasons for the order of the day, but also increase the proportion affordable housing. At current prices and price earnings ratio observed (according to studies done by the author of the report, by the end of 2007 Beijing housing prices over 13.67 times higher than income, the highest), and housing prices this year, 8 months ago, and Shanghai, Beijing housing bubble quite Obviously, we think that down to the level of the beginning of last year, also in August on the basis of the three losses Daosi Cheng will be more reasonable.
Figure 10 in the second, supply and demand in the trough is cake. As can be seen from the chart, the first three quarters of this year, the supply of housing in the same period last year, more than 15% of the September emergence of the reasons for the sudden jump in, and under the influence of the Olympic Games in August set up relief, but also with "The Nine" of the season Expected. From the analysis of the volume, the first three quarters of this year, with the sharp drop in the same period last year, 43 percent. In June this year, is a small watershed, with volume close to the same period last year, several months before the increase, followed by decline, reflected in the third quarter, the market is expected to deteriorate rapidly. September supply and demand ratio of 1:0.2, basically in the country can be described as the most cake slot.
Third, a small number of disk sales were good. The market downturn, the well-known companies selling well-known market, market concentration has been further improved. R & F Festival Walk, Sijihuacheng Vanke, China Ocean City, Taoyuan R & F properties for sale are four high cost of brand market, R & F Properties of the two projects also re-list the two-month contract. For example, Vanke three Sijihuacheng 7800 yuan / sq m price, a very high cost. Shock on the market for small and medium enterprises are disadvantaged, they were only more than 000 enterprises set greater price discounts, will it be possible from the "far from adequate" in a weak market life-saving rice mixed population.
11 Figure 2, the central region: volume decreased significantly, housing prices began to decline slightl
In 2007 the rapid growth of the national property market in general, that is, six provinces in central Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Anhui, Henan, Shanxi has maintained a larger increase. Growth rate of investment in real estate development in more than 30%, higher than the eastern region; the purchase of the land area of Jiangxi Province in addition to slightly negative growth, all other provinces to maintain moderate growth; construction area will increase an average of more than 20%, similar to the east and west; completed In addition to the same period last year to reduce the area of Jiangxi Province is in addition to positive growth; average sales increase of 30%, higher than the eastern part of the on market activities in the region; prices in the range of 10-20%, the level of medium fast, but the room Lower than the eastern part of the price increase.
Since 2008, as the national real estate market as a whole down, as well as domestic and international macro-economic growth fell in the eastern region and also appeared in other parts of the country simultaneously. However, in view of the central region is basically non-existent real estate bubble, but also to owner-occupied demand-driven, so the market is not room for downward adjustment. However, the differentiation between the cities, Wuhan this year, the rate fell a larger market, in particular the situation of supply exceeding demand in a very prominent; and Zhengzhou, Changsha, Hefei and other cities despite the market's downward trend has emerged, but the performance is relatively stable.
Typical analysis of the city: the property market in Wuhan, a significant adjustment unavoidabl
Rise of Central China's Wuhan as an important group of the city last year in the first half of this year, the property market has experienced a wave of rapid growth. Last year, in particular the large "1 +8" Wuhan city circle approved a "national resource-conserving and environment-friendly society building an experimental zone for comprehensive reform package" marks were included in the national strategy, China will become the new economic growth pole. In this positive encouragement, in the eastern part of some investors last year, entered the Wuhan market, for pushing up housing prices play a role in adding fuel to the flames. However, at present, the Wuhan market situation is very grim.
Figure 12 from the supply analysis, in the first three quarters of this year to the same period last year decreased slightly by 2% in the first three quarters, but the sharp drop in volume but 63% of the national decline in one or two lines in the city, the biggest fall, we can see The market downturn. Inevitably, there have been serious situation of supply exceeding demand, May to September this year in a row in May a new volume only accounts for about one-third of the supply. Basically, this disparity can be said to be on first in the country. If the only measure of supply and demand, then across the country, Wuhan property market crisis.
However, the price of observation, the current prices have not dropped, so the property market has not yet comprehensive" breach. " March 2007 the price of commercial housing for 3867 yuan, has been followed up by 2007 to reach a high of 11 points, followed by the national property market adjusted downward under the influence of the beginning of consolidation and today has been warmer in the spring, prices rose again until 2008 In May, the highest point reached 5791 yuan, compared to March last year, an increase of 50%. In large and medium cities in China, or higher. After continued to fall, domestic prices of goods in September for the 4673 yuan more than the highest point in May was down 19%.
By the year 2007 house price data to measure, with the first-line in the eastern cities of Wuhan's price earnings ratio is not high, nearly 9 times, a little bubble. This year, according to the increase, prices need to fall into a second or so. But the terrorist people, far greater than demand for, and the developer does not seem fully aware of its serious consequences before the full price, the valley region, only the prelude to the price war started. Also said that, in severe pressure on the poor sales, Wuhan property market is likely to usher in a wave of rapid price declines, but will be non-Shadie as a rational outcome.
The government and enterprises must be fully aware of the dangers of this. From the point of view, should be introduced to more and more intensity of the rescue package, it should be at the expense of more taxes and fees and other government income, to stimulate effective demand, due at the same time maintain the market order to avoid the collapse of real estate and business between the Cut-throat competition. Price does not have a bubble, but most likely the last referred to the Hong Kong not only bubble burst, even below the water bubbles will Liudiao. From the business point of view, the price return of funds is the key, or wait the more the more dangerous.
3, in the western region: 20-40% of the volume decline in housing prices relatively stable, there was not much room dow
In the western region as a whole than in the eastern part of a certain level of development gap is in economic development and speed the process of urbanization, the real estate market has increased the initial stage. In 2007 in the western region in 12 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions to increase the real estate investment, real estate development efforts to enhance the construction area, the start of the new area, the completion of the area and an area sales and other indicators of the growth rate of more than other regional cities, On the whole, showed more strong growth momentum.
2007 in the western region real estate investment amounted to 486,520,000,000 yuan, an increase of 40%. Embodied in the area of newly started construction area and a significant increase over last year were up 25% and 26%, showing strong momentum of the follow-up. In the first three quarters, the western cities of the land market transactions are more popular, and Wang frequent developers to get enthusiastic and the purchase of the land area of 110,446,000 square meters, up 12%; area of land development is a significant increase in reach 66,118,000 square meters, an increase of 34%. In addition to Sichuan, Guizhou and Tibet has declined, the other provinces and cities are increasing year-on-year.
In the western region of the active market, by volume Qi price. In 2007 in the western region sales area of 192,610,000 square meters, up 32%, with the exception of Tibet's decline, the other provinces and cities in most of the increase of 20%. The strong demand backed up slightly less than the supply, which led to a certain extent, the prices rose. Provinces and cities in the western area of commercial housing than the average price last year, have varying degrees of improvement, especially in Sichuan, Gansu, Inner Mongolia and Chongqing provinces in the urban areas or in more than 20%.
Since 2008, and the land market in the western provinces and cities affected by the regulation, developers are more tense capital chain, traded relatively deserted. To get businesses to the local medium and small enterprises, individual cities or even a higher standard flow rate of the land, and land are fundamental to the reserve price has contract; major cities in the area of commercial housing supply trends are basically the same, that is, in the first quarter of supply A significant decline in the second quarter although the pick-up in supply, but still less than last year's level; average turnover in the western cities are basically the same trend, the calendar month average volume was small fluctuations in oscillation.
Typical analysis of the city: Chongqing property market, the rare storm," Harbor "
Wuhan with similar, and Wuhan earlier than was included in the national strategy in 2007 was awarded a national urban and rural comprehensive reform pilot area. However, this does not promote a significant positive Chongqing property market prices, the effect, at least not so obvious in Tianjin Binhai New Area. In May 2008, Chongqing Wenchuan earthquake in the property market by the negative impact of concern is that the current form of Chongqing's property market to be significantly better than the other two cities in line. This reflects the house price bubble in the western city of small, self-sustainable demand for better living, the country can be called a storm in the property market in a small valuable Harbor. Although affected by the storm, but far less than many cities.
Figure 13 from the volume on the analysis of the first three quarters of this year, Chongqing year-on-year volume of commercial housing dropped into the four or so, many cities in the country with similar, but the vast majority of the country in different cities, the last significant demand after , 9 months of this year, there are as many as 7 or in short supply for the month and another month of a balance between supply and demand. This is of great significance to the stability of the market, and is much greater than demand for Wuhan's a sharp contrast. As a result, the next period of time, although the property market will be Chongqing's property market with the national trend has been downward, but does not test the space, other than one or two lines in the central eastern city of optimism.
From the analysis of prices, from 4000 yuan in the first half of 2007 about the level of continuing to rise in August 2008 of 5166 yuan, or about 29%, or across the country in the middle at a low level. In fact according to the author of the study of the topic, according to the calculation of prices in 2007, Chongqing's price earnings ratio of only 5.25 times, in major cities across the country at the level of bias, no foam at all fundamental. As a result, we believe that as the Chongqing municipality, the current level of prices is not far off, down 15-20% is sufficient. In fact, in September 2008 prices for 4851 yuan, the ring than in August have fallen by 6%. Chongqing should be buyers have confidence in the property market, it is unrealistic to expect the market.
The market is proof of that. From the project level, some of the discount rate marked the brand is still selling real estate. Merchants Bay City real estate than in the same Mori Longhu the other side of the spring low of 15% open, even set up to house the millions, to have opened on the day of 118 sets. Kim Yun Branch Lake every day this month, pushing the new housing price directly, and discount decline to 9, good sales. MOCO hu, is not only a significant advantage, and characteristics of great size, small size and high value-added products to attract a large number of customers.
Fourth, the market downturn, there are still four categories of real estate sales to achiev
Even in the extreme downturn in the property market, there is still a certain amount of volume, but most of these transactions was 000 set by the market and among them, and well-known developers of the star's real estate market share significantly more than the market boom. Vanke's market share in 2007 from the 2.07 percent rise to around 2.7 percent this year, is proof. At present, around the hot-selling real estate to have such features: 000 enterprises were set, a larger discount rate. The report Vivanco in the third quarter, or even call a public developer sales price.
National Market from the point of view, there are four categories of properties for sale in the near future to achieve better sales performance. The first category, a discount greater efforts to market the well-known enterprises. Well-known brand has a strong appeal, and market support to improve the community, especially the larger promotional efforts, it is easy to get people buying houses recognition. From across the country, Vanke, R & F, China Shipping, China, Dragon Lake, and other well-known enterprises in some of the real estate market in the winter Piaohong the market. In particular, to which Wanke was the representative of the typical. In the current round of price surge, the first price Vanke, Shanghai, Hangzhou and other cities and more unified set a discount promotion, play good results.
The second category, ultra-small single-family apartments. Downturn in the market as a whole, rigid demand to become the backbone of the market. Located in the city center, or regional centers of economic development zone within the single white-collar workers to meet the needs of the ultra-small living units, was in hot pursuit of the market. Most of these projects are below 50 square meters of a room, or even below 30 square meters.
The third category, economic supply of houses on the outskirts. Market demand is the main first-time home buyers who demand rigid. Their relatively limited purchasing power of decision in a location more inclined to choose the suburbs, is more popular in the chamber at about 80 square meters bedroom or 90 square meters of the three bedrooms. In line with the demand for such a lot on the outskirts of the economic product at the right price concessions are stimulated to achieve a better sales performance.
The fourth category, an integrated feature of the product category.比如,万达集团以开发销品茂等综合性商业项目为主,大部分项目是所在城市或区域内的商业中心和地标,其配套建设的住宅产品升值潜力得到了投资者的认可。再如,华侨城是专业的旅游地产开发商,其独特的产品概念使其在市场竞争中避免了与其他项目直接竞争,综合项目中的住宅亦卖得不错。
五、今后两年我国房地产市场走势预
未来两年,我国房地产市场的走势受两方面因素的制约和影响。一方面是利空因素。国际金融风暴继续肆虐,世界各国都受到波及,欧美地区受灾尤其严重,国内经济亦受其负面影响,出口下滑,经济下行,外资撤离。国内经济下行已成定局,股市、楼市皆低迷,实体经济亦萎靡不振,企业效益下滑。在内外宏观经济双重负面影响下,我国房地产市场必然同步下行
另一方面是利好因素。国际方面,主要国家联合救市,有助于抑制金融风暴的进一步恶化,能够在一定程度上减轻我国经济和楼市面临的外部压力。国内方面,目前中央拯救经济的决心超大,11月“4万亿投资计划”的出台,表明国家促内需保增长的力度将超过1998年应对亚洲金融危机的措施,“积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策”也标志着持续五年之久的紧缩型宏观调控转变为扩张型调控。从房地产政策利好分析,10月22日财政部和央行的相关文件标志着中央救楼市的开始
利空与利好同时存在,那么,今后两年我国房地产市场到底何去何从？不妨先拿股市经验做类比。今年9月中旬后,以百年金融大佬雷曼兄弟的倒闭为起点,美国次债危机迅速升级为金融风暴,美国政府陆续做出接管“两房”和AIG、7000亿美元援助计划、降息等诸多救市动作,但多少有些出人意料的是,一边是政府步步紧逼地救市,另一边是股市难以扼制地节节败退。2000年股市泡沫破灭后,道琼斯指数用了8年时间 (2007年10月)达到史上最高的14000点以上,至今已跌去了近一半
中国亦类似,也是从去年10月开始下跌,至今上指跌幅超过70%,比道指更熊大了。9月18日免除印花税等三政策出台后,次日股市立即雄起,一片涨停板;奈何只是昙花一现,其后依然在低迷中寻找方向,重新跌回2000点以下。由此证明,在经济整体下行的市场预期下,无论美国股市,还是中国股市,都不领“政府救市之情”。股市的政策底来了,股价底部却未见踪影
许多人反对中央救市的主要依据是:房价还没降到合理水平。事实确也如此。可另外还有一个事实:即使救市,短期内市场也不会见底,房价还将继续回落。目前全国及上海房价正处于下跌过程中,提前救市,更有可能使房价在到达合理位置时,市场同时也进入底部。反过来看,如果一直等到房价大跌之后才救市,则市场出现底部时,则房价极有可能已出现巨跌——这一点是政府绝不愿看到的
为什么会这样？因为绝大部分政策,其效力显现都需要一个过程,存在滞后期。若进一步往深处探究,则会发现政策显效的内因是市场主体(尤其是买方)的心理预期发生改变。众所周知,在资产市场中,“追涨杀跌”的现象一直存在,说明市场预期是左右市场走势的核心因素。而目前,全国楼市的预期是向下走的,救市之策绝非“神仙药”,无挽狂澜之力,短期内市场不容乐观。然而另一方面,随着越来越多、越来越强的救市政策出台,市场预期会必然受其影响,慢慢改变,终会迎来由量变到质变的时间节点
这一节点的到来,也正是全国或上海房地产市场底部的到来。还要等多久？这几乎是一个谜。我们只能依据经验作大致预测。经验之一,楼市周期基本与经济周期同步。改革开放以来,我国经济经历了三个周期,第一个周期(1979-1990年)的高峰出现在1984年(GDP增长15.2%),低谷出现在1990年(GDP增长3.8%)。第二个周期(1991-2001年)高峰出现在1992年(GDP增长14.2),低谷出现在1999年(GDP增长7.1%)。第三个周期从2002年开始,2007年达到高点(GDP增长11.9%),若按前两次规律,2011-2012年将是谷底。而房地产业一般会比宏观经济提前触底回升,楼市底部极有可能出现在2010-2011年
经验之二,楼市个具有自身运行的规律。二战后,美国房地产市场出现过5个低潮期,一般持续2年左右,其中1970年和1991属于明显的最低谷。1991年之前,美国楼市一个周期是10年左右,而这轮增长,除了2000年受IT泡沫稍有影响外,持续增长至2006年,积累了较大的泡沫,2007年明显破灭,低潮期将长于以往。与美国不同的是,我国住宅市场化的全面开始才只有短短10年,所以尚未走完发达国家所经历过的由刚性需求主导的“楼市黄金20年”(二战后至60年代末)。但我国的问题是近几年房价涨幅远超地发达国家历史水平,“冒进主义”的结果,必然市场调整,2-3年低潮期是必须的
从今年前10个月全国市场情况分析,2008年房屋成交量同比2007年将出现大幅下滑,估计萎缩3-4成,但由于全国房价拐点出现在第三季度,因此2008年全年房价同比2007年,依然呈正增长,不过涨幅将由2007年的18%(商品房)大幅回落,5%左右的可能性较大(预计与2006年4.4%的涨幅相近)。至于2009年,全国房屋成交量将依然在低位徘徊,但全年成交价格将比2008年出现负增长。2010年全国楼市触底反弹的可能性最大。(文/上海易居房地产研究院