9Real Estate Network published abou
No one thought that the United States early in 2007 the real estate market of a small branch - secondary market loan payment It has been the evolution of the risk of spread to become a global financial crisis (it was also known as the "financial tsunami", but also to highlight the severity of the crisis) with the possibility of further deterioration of the economic crisis as it directly affects the people's livelihood. After almost two years of heavy rain and strong wind in the financial sector baptism, a lot of people think that this storm than the beginning of this century high-tech bubble burst triggered by the financial crisis of severe and persistent, people also suffer more. Thus some of the real estate industry and the financial crisis in the relationship between doubt and fear in the cyclical industry will often lead to financial crisis and even the financial turmoil.
This fear seems quite sensible, because about 30 years ago in the United States financial markets have experienced another serious financial crisis, later known as the savings and loan association crisis, and is also closely related to the real estate market The. In that case, the real estate market and the financial crisis in the end between what kind of relationship? The adjustment of the real estate market surely result in a serious financial crisis? We might as well from the current crisis is about.
Sub-loan default rate rise triggered a second loan crisi
more than a year ago, few Chinese people probably heard of sub-loans, let alone understand how it is different.
Today, large and medium-sized cities, ordinary people after a long period of the uncles, few probably did not know the U.S. real estate market this variety of loans, although a true understanding of the principles of which are still a few, but at least not eating pork is also seen (Heard) pig run.
Because of the crisis in a long time have been called America's" sub-loan crisis, "gave people the impression that the United States and the old secondary market loan fiasco, triggered the financial crisis and the worsening of the crisis has affected Growing area, and even today no one can predict when the crisis will be the last. Not many people sigh, really small guy into a big trouble.
Sub-loans to the real estate market in the United States in recent years, rapid development of a housing mortgage loan products. Loan to buy a house for the people, the sub-loan approval simple, low lending standards, the loan amount, some times also allows the structure of the loan-to-head two small loans to repay the debt to pay back the money or not. Why not? As a result, more than the original loan-to-section of people to the loan-to-buy section, there are only some of the original loan of 1,000,000 U.S. dollars, under this loan to the 1,500,000 U.S. dollars or more, buy a bigger house. But on the whole, even if the peak of the development of sub-loans, the loan-to-time in the United States the total amount of all mortgage loans ratio of about 20%, however, does not scale, only on the size of the mortgage market, a small brother.
Loan at the outbreak of the crisis in the United States directly, of course, the fuse housing prices down. Americans of the real estate market since 2001, rising by now fashionable as saying that the real estate bubble began to emerge, and a total of pace by the end of 2006 to finally do not hold any longer, the signs began to drop.
Due to the sub-loan borrowers an average of poor credit, low income levels, and sub-structure of the loan due to the relatively more complicated, many borrowers do not understand the risk inherent in them. Once the prices drop or interest rates rise (usually two have come together), sub-loan lenders in the event of default probability than ordinary mortgage loans of the National People's Congress. In 2007 the United States since the real estate market situation is that only the United States because of the structured products market is highly developed, many of the sub-loan package to be sold through a number of asset securitization has become the method of modification of various securities Products (CDO, CDS, CDO2, etc.), making loan-to-market times the risk of default to the rapid spread throughout the financial markets, and thus far out of control, forming a growing financial crisis.
sub-loan crisis in the United States is the root cause of falling house prices?
From the financial crisis broke out of the process, the secondary market loan default rate increased the causes of the financial turmoil is the fuse, but the financial crisis attributed to a small sub-loans, the market seems to be a little bit Too simple a naive. First of all, sub-loan market is not big, and the subsequent liquidity crisis in financial markets, credit markets to freeze the crisis, as well as a comprehensive financial market turmoil, it is nothing.
Secondly, although the first crisis occurred in sub-loan market, but has now spread to auto loans, credit card loans, student loans and corporate credit markets, even once the entire credit market freeze, with sub-loans to those without Coherent's market similar crisis, that just before the outbreak of the crisis in the credit market as a whole and even the financial markets is already a crisis, in the event of any sign of trouble the entire financial system are possible large-scale landslides, but this is just the starting point for the cave-in And real estate-related loans to secondary market only.
Finally, during the turmoil CUHK enjoy the limelight of the new financial derivatives secured creditor's rights certificate (CDO) and credit default swaps (CDS) in recent years in foreign financial markets was the rapid development of the two major financial product innovation, the Structure of the complex, large-scale exchange market, but also the lack of the necessary market supervision.
Coincidentally, the two types of products that trace to its source are based on the real estate mortgage loans, particularly in sub-mortgage loans. Since the outbreak of the crisis, these two types of high-level derivatives hidden in the structure of the potential risks to be fully exposed, becoming the rapid spread of the crisis, the crisis quickly rose harmful important reasons, so a lot of people will also be meeting up to the financial crisis loan Crisis attributed the real estate market. However, a detailed analysis of the security certificate debt and credit default swaps in the product mix existing deficiencies lead to the rapid spread of financial risks, although they are a potential risk due to the end of the U.S. housing downturn and rising interest rates triggered, but even in the absence of price The volatility of these products on the structure of the potential risks still exist, but the latent period may be longer, and the last to be induced because that is not necessarily sub-loan market fluctuations. So, although the reduction in U.S. housing prices lead to sub-loan default rate of increase in loans and secondary market volatility and ultimately caused the financial crisis, but if the financial crisis attributed to the outbreak of the real estate market seems to be very volatile A far-fetched.
From the U.S. real estate market in the past one hundred years of development, basically, we can see about a 10-year development cycle. In other words, the average 10-year U.S. real estate market will be up from a downward to complete the cycle.
Therefore, this year there were more than a hundred large and small, the adjustment of real estate no less than ten times, but at the same time the occurrence of large-scale financial crisis is rare, known only 1930 of the Great Depression (the crisis Affected the housing market, but the housing market is not induced by the Great Depression of the fuse), in the early 1990s the savings and loan association crisis and the financial crisis.
This shows that the real estate market and the cyclical fluctuations in financial markets and large-scale crisis does not have a clear cause and effect.
the development of real estate finance will not increase our financial system risk factors
We should know that China's real estate market and real estate development of the financial market is still in its very early stages. On the one hand, real estate financial products scarce, the small size of the market, the entire financial system is very low impact. On the market today can be described as a real estate financial products only mortgage securitization (MBS), only the size of more than 10,000,000,000 yuan, with tens of thousands of billion of mortgage loans is compared to the tip of the iceberg, financial shake System, it is extremely unlikely. On the other hand, the current level of the financial markets are imperfect, not more innovative products and strict supervision of their respective markets of poor connectivity.
Even in a sub-market occurred in a certain degree of volatility, triggered large-scale financial risks the possibility is very low. This shows that the current outbreak in China similar to the U.S. market on the financial risks the possibility is very low.
Further, the financial markets, real estate development has been lagging seriously restricted the macro-economic development of the real estate market and the smooth development of China's financial market as a whole is also very harmful to development. A large number of mortgage loans and real estate development loans from the banking system to hold, exacerbated by the banking system in the property market risk exposure, once the property market and the relatively large fluctuations, the impact on the banking system will be very severe (that in the United States Savings and loan association crisis reflects the very clear).
On the contrary, well-developed financial markets, real estate is usually not the whole financial system to increase the overall risk (of course, have to avoid a similar U.S. real estate derivatives market risk out of control and supervision over Song). Especially in the current security and development has become the main theme of economic development, through great efforts to develop real estate financial markets, on the one hand, pull the real estate market recovery, while avoiding the banking system on the real estate market risk exposure is too large, too much focus on To ensure the realization of China's macro-economic good of the fast development will play a very important role.