Guoxin Securities Fang Ya

November 22, the Beijing Municipal Construction Committee, National Development and Reform Commission, the Department of Finance, to the Inland Revenue Department, the Planning Board, Land Bureau, the Bureau of Statistics, National Bureau of Statistics Beijing Survey Organization, the management of the Bank of Beijing, the city of Banking Bureau, the Municipal Housing Fund Center 11, and other government departments jointly issued the "Regulations on the real estate market in Beijing to promote the steady development of a number of opinions" (hereinafter referred to as the "opinion"). "" Involved in the stability of the real estate market, including the New Deal: to reduce the tax burden of housing transactions, to enjoy preferential policies to adjust the prices of ordinary commodities housing standards and increase consumer credit, housing, in particular, the loan fund to support and encourage the residents of the reasonable housing consumption, active Market transactions. In supporting the "Beijing to enjoy preferential policies for housing the average trading price of notice" (hereinafter referred to as "notice"), since November 24, to enjoy preferential policies on the average housing prices to adjust.

" opinion "issued in full compliance with our judgments. By the end of September we introduced in the fourth quarter of the investment strategy report "or loosening of the opportunity to bring the transaction," that is, to determine the next 3 months to loosen the policy period; in the Oct. 15 "lift the local" rescue the tide ", short-term performance of property stocks Will be stronger than the market ", the judge will have more of the local government launched the rescue package, the central policy of good within reach introduced; in the morning on October 22 issued by the" continuing economic decline, or ultra-loose policy is expected to "report , We believe that the central policy of relaxation and intensity of space will be very large, widely expected to exceed the market; in the Oct. 23 "ultra-loose policy is expected, the recommendation to increase the rating industry," the report, to judge Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, and so on First-line cities will also be introduced to the rescue package. The Beijing "opinion" issued in line with expectations, revealed that since October the central and local policies and activities are entirely consistent with our pre-judgment.

" "The biggest adjustment is a bright spot in the general commodity housing standards, will benefit from a substantial increase. Housing is a "common home" or "non-ordinary housing", in the first and second purchase transaction taxes and fees and mortgage policies implemented by different criteria, such as the specific Table 1. In accordance with the revised standard, the Beijing three-ring set with a total 2,150,000 yuan, three-ring between the City of Victoria to 1,750,000 yuan each, to the Fourth Ring rings between each set of 1,650,000 yuan, five rings Each other than 1,000,000 yuan of housing transactions can enjoy preferential policies from the Nov. 24, according to the procedures for taxpayers to declare the transaction price of the new standards, in line with the provisions of the new conditions, all taxpayers are allowed to enjoy tax-related Relief concessions. We estimated that to meet the floor area ratio, with a total area of the relevant conditions on the basis of Wuhuanyinei in total less than 1,980,000 yuan (1.65 million × 1.2 = 198 million) of the house to enjoy a corresponding reduction of taxes and fees. The previous is based on the average land price level set by the city to the suburbs is divided into ten levels, according to the division level, the main Cheng Baqu basically less than five, under the old policy, the average price of 7500 yuan less than the house is for "Ordinary housing", such a house in Chengba Qu has been almost no sign of that either.

We are in accordance with the" advice "to carry out the provisions of the estimates, gathered in Beijing commercial housing four to five rings, to 90 square meters of commercial housing were identified as general categories, the limit for the maximum price of 22,000 yuan / sq m The 100 square meters of commercial housing to be identified as a general category, the limit for the maximum price of 19,800 yuan / sq m, and the current market price as compared to the means in the region, most of the housing will be As general residential, we have to Fourth Ring total 1,980,000 yuan, 22,000 yuan Price / m 90 square meters of housing, for example, measured by the implementation of the New Deal, the buyers who will alleviate the burden of taxes and fees of 145,000 yuan, And the down payment on the total savings for the nearly 30 million, as Table 2.

" "The greatest shortcomings - did not involve two sets of home and relax on the developer support, we will determine the future perfect complement. Integrated throughout the rescue package, to Chengdu, Nanjing, Hangzhou, the three places up the largest and most comprehensive, Hangzhou, in order to "24" as an example, the provision of real estate development enterprises in the minimum corporate income tax by Yu Zheng, the relaxation of the construction project open, the completion of Period, the relaxation of the plot to sell the new deadline and the ratio of price to pay for the development process took place in a number of administrative charges or to allow Huanjiao relief, to encourage banks to increase effective input credit support for the room rate, these measures will reduce the burden of housing prices Greatly ease the pressure on corporate funds, and "24" relaxed "mortgage sets policy," a family of middle-aged children over the age of 18 years of age to buy second homes in accordance with the implementation of the first set of housing loans. However, the introduction of Beijing's "opinion" did not involve two sets of home and relax on the developer support efforts as Hangzhou, Nanjing and other places. In this regard, we believe that the current climate of opinion is mainly caused by local real estate out "rescue" more cautious, but we believe that: a good time not to do in the future will continue to add sound.

" Opinions "on the protection of housing supply will be difficult to achieve, the developers of the relevant provisions of the negative effects and will not be too great. I, "" rule "policy, Beijing will increase housing construction and speeding up measures in the protection of 5,300,000 square meters of housing prices and housing construction to be carried out this task of building 8,000,000 square meters, next year plans to start a new policy 8,500,000 square meters of housing. " We believe that this will be difficult to achieve: 2007 Beijing plans to build 2,500,000 square meters of affordable housing, 3,500,000 square meters room price, if all implemented, according to the normal cycle of construction is estimated that the basic supply in the market this year, We measured out from the beginning of the year to Nov. 21, Beijing's affordable housing market was only 701,000 square meters, the price of the room was only listed 2,520,000 square meters, from the 2007 program are still large gaps, In 2007 the plan has been difficult to complete, there is reason to believe 08,09 years will not be able to achieve. Second, we have to determine, as the real estate industry has gone through lots of adjustments and deeper into a severe recession, housing prices will be phased out next year in the market to protect the main housing by low-cost Housing, affordable housing-led, as Both of housing for low-income families, in groups of customers, units, in areas such as property rights are very different from ordinary commercial housing, but the general squeeze the supply of housing land, so in the long run, its general merchandise home Instead, prices have a certain role Zhu Zhang and the other, "opinion" that "will be taken to the construction and acquisition of both measures to meet the conditions of low-cost, small and medium-sized dwelling size of an ordinary commodity housing to buy into a part of the protective housing or limit Housing prices, housing policy to increase supply of houses, "this measure can be implemented so as to make this year's climb up the primary commodity residential Qi Fang Shou Liang may have been a part of the digest, we believe, for the protection of housing The developers of the provisions of the negative effects and will not be too great.

" "Will be issued in favor of Beijing price stability and promote commercial transactions, we maintain the industry" recommended "rating. "Views" expressed hope that the Beijing municipal government has gone through Shenfudiaozheng the capital of the real estate market can stabilize as soon as possible because of the "views" among the measures Beijing will allow more people to enjoy the purchase of ordinary housing tax and financial benefits We believe that Beijing will be conducive to price stability, the promotion of real estate transactions, at the same time, we believe that good policy would add further improve. We maintain the industry "recommended" rating, to maintain "the next 3-6 months will be strong performance of property stocks in the market," the judge to maintain the nation's leading Poly, Vanke "recommended" rating, leading to the Beijing Urban Construction in Beijing (7.42, -0.56, -7.02%, Right), the first shares (6.64, -0.74, -10.03%, right) to give "careful recommended" rating.