“2009 abundant ao real estate forums” abundant ao will begin in Hainan, this forum subject will be “in the anabiosis and the change real estate new future”.The souhu.com focal point net took the union sponsor side, will send back the scene in the first time to report, and will make own direct seeding to this activity.

according to the understanding, in 2009 the abundant ao real estate forum determined the participation population surpassed 600 people, the senate meets the enterprise to cover nationwide, the regional real estate main item enterprise and the finance and so on the related industrial chain.Among them, many domestic heavyweight honored guests.The following is Zhu Zhong a lecture factual record.

fellow leaders, fellow experts, fellow colleagues, journalistic circles' fellow friends, are good in the morning! On invitation attends 2009 abundant ao real estate forums fortunately, below I on the current real estate market situation and the related policy suggested discusses some individual views, for everybody reference.Just like

the current real estate market situation our country economic situation is same, is being in the steady rise the crucial phase, looked from 1- in July related data, the real estate after passed through the preceding section of time adjustment as well as the lead returned to the rise stage.The commodity apartment sales area same ratio grew 37.1%, the commodity housing sale area same ratio grew 38.8%.In the middle of the national 31 provincial capital area cities, the commodity apartment sale area with compares the drop only then Xizang Autonomous Region.The commodity housing sale area with compares the drop also only then Shanxi Province and Xizang Autonomous Region two.But Shanxi same compares the drop, also only dropped 1.7%.Everybody knew Shanxi same compared to the drop possibly with Shanxi many people, has the relations in the outside areas buying homes.Shanxi many people the human who purchases homes in Hainan also very are as far as I know many, in Sanya, in seaport, even in Wutzushan.This also explained a question, after has now marketed, not only do the common people want to solve have the housing question, then pays attention to the housing the performance question, at present pays great attention to the environment the quality question, looks like the Hainan environment quality quite to be good, is by far better than Shanxi, therefore Shanxi very many rich men, all purchase homes including very many teachers in Hainan.Moreover from the national 70 big or media-sized cities, the house selling price index looked that, in March starts the link to compare the rise, in April, in May, in June, in July link compare the increase scope respectively are 0.4%, 0.6%, 0.8%, 0.9%.House price bouncing back, also is the market return to warmer weather important performance.The property development investment speed-up also month by month rises, showed our enterprise invests the confidence is strengthening.

along with entire economic environment unceasingly to good, the national real estate market was still hopeful continues to return to warmer weather, the current our matter of concern mainly was such three: First, some places current face the supplies insufficient and the many places face next step latent insufficient supply question.Since this year the commodity apartment sale area growth has been remarkable, but 1- in July property development investment cost only same ratio grows 11.6%, the housing development invests the same ratio to grow 8.2%.But the land purchase area, completes the land the development area and the house new operation area distinguishes the same ratio to drop 25.8%, 13.4%, 9.1%.

these advance target drop will produce to the real estate market next step supplies affects greatly.Specially looks like Beijing and so on several sales volume quite big provinces and cities, 1- in July housing investment still with compared the drop.For instance Beijing dropped 10.5%, Shanghai dropped 6.2%, Jiangsu dropped 2.4%, Fujian dropped 26.1%, Guangdong dropped 13.8%.According to the related development facility reckoning, looks like Shanghai, Hangzhou, Shenzhen and so on several cities if looked by early this year average sale speed, Shanghai, Hangzhou may sell the area to be able to provide 2-4 month-long sale merely, Shenzhen can provide not to half year.Supplies obvious insufficient.

second, some place house price excessively quickly rise and certain cities will appear in the near future soil-rent value excessively quickly rise question.Many city house price already approached or surpasses in 2007 8, September level.Cared about extremely to this question common people and some experts that, hoped can stabilize the house price. Third, credit policy and credit scale question.Real estate market fast return to warmer weather, with loose currency credit policy close correlation.1- in July, in middle the property development investment origin, the domestic loan is 652,400,000,000, the same ratio grows 42.7%.Individual mortgage loan is 362,800,000,000, the same ratio grows 78.9%.Along with the market sale gradual change for the better, enterprise's investment confidence has the restoration, in May the same month new operation area, the land purchase area appeared the link compared to the rise, in June, in July property development investment also has the quick growth, may estimate the second half of this year enterprise the investment still could increase dynamics, but the call for fund was huge.But must see, the nation increases has already achieved 7 the loan to July0.73 Yuan, the next period of time credit will provide whether will be able to continue to maintain to develops the enterprise and individual housing consumer supports, will have the significant influence to the real estate market.

the judgment next five month-long real estate market trend and the house price trend will mainly need to look the supply and demand two aspects, the supplies aspect situation above me has already given the briefing.Looked from the demand, current because after price rise, can continue to maintain such one kind of demand sustainable, but also waits for the observation.But may see, the house price excessively quickly rise city, many by from lives the natural and the improvement demand primarily ordinary commodity apartment home-buyer, fell into waited and saw.In July some city turnover varying degree drops, moreover some cities after tightened two anteroom room loan policy, got up the positive inhibitory action to the investment demand.But people's guaranteed price the increment anticipated to the real estate quite to be still intense, the latent demand still massively exists.

after our comparative external analysis current real estate market situation, supply and demand situation as well as credit situation.We to the next five month market forecast will be such several speeches: One was the property development investment still can grow with steady steps.Two was some city house price rise pressure quite is still big, but the increase scope can become slower.Three is the turnover possibly appears the shake.Objective saying, some house prices, the soil-rent value rise excessively quickly city must prevent the froth the production and the accumulation, otherwise to the demand further release, the real estate market and the money market stable will have the adverse effect.Simultaneously will also cause social each aspect as well as central authorities' attention, also has increased the policy adjustment sensitivity.This is must remind everybody, reminds the development enterprise to have in particular to pay attention.Our development enterprise wants certainly the calm judgment situation, do not have to boost the real estate market rising in prices, maintains the real estate market return to warmer weather by the practical action the excellent aspect.

in brief, we already must affirm the real estate the fast return to warmer weather, guarantees the growth to the country, guarantees the livelihood of the people, guarantees the function which the stable aspect displays.Also wants the clear current real estate market rise foundation not to be unstable, the development is not balanced, therefore the maintenance return to warmer weather situation, prevented rises in prices the spread is our common responsibility.Suggested for this us that, first must stabilize the policy.This important first must stabilize the country to manage sends the 131st document related encouragement from to live the expense and the improvement expense policy.Also must stabilize the credit policy, supports the enterprise to throw financing the policy, to the prestige good, has the strength big enterprise to have to continue to give the credit aid.To small and medium-sized enterprise, so long as conforms to the industrial guidance, also must give the support.Meanwhile to the trust fund experiment site plan, hoped grasps appearing as soon as possible.Must implement the difference treatment to the personal credit the policy.Must continue to ordinary commodity apartment this to encourage, to two anteroom loan policy, must give the adjustment by each place people's government according to the local market conditions.Regarding speculative, does not prepay in the credit holds.

second, must supply stably.In most recent several year demand quite exuberant situation, the government department solves the balance between supply and demand and the price stable question from the adjustment demand, the effect is not too ideal.Inside this has an important reason, is our demand this block, because real estate itself has the investment attribute, therefore it releases very easily in the short-term, looks like for 07 years 7, 8, 9 three months, including this year 5, in June may look, the real estate both has the expense attribute, and has the investment attribute, but invests the attribute in the fluid quite abundant situation to be possible the short-term release, but the land supply, the commodity apartment development has the periodicity, sometimes the compartment, therefore the supply and demand is very difficult to balance.Moreover an important reason, land monopolization, planning, but the real estate market marketability degree quite is strong.Also some important reason, the real estate project is a real estate, cannot instigate.Therefore we theoretically must pursue total quantity basic balance, structure basic reasonable, price basic stable, is very difficult in the actual operation stratification plane to achieve.Therefore must achieve the macroeconomic regulation and control goal, the difficulty quite is big, but this aspect we must continue exploration.Some we thought very importantly, is the preceding period of time in the demand quite exuberant situation about, although sometimes we also raise adjust, but often stresses controls the credit and the land two strobes strictly, in particular land this strobe, strictly controls the strobe in fact reduces the supplies, has created the goal and between the regulative measure incompatibility which we regulate.After therefore we summarized these year experience lesson, we deep felt deeply first must supply stably.The stable supply first is must stabilize the land supply, simultaneously must consummate the land a move of racket to hang the system, in inside the stable land supply, uses the urban construction the increase and the rural reconstruction uses to reduce the suspension hook, so long as has linked up, to the land is intensive.Allows the farmer homestead to change houses to neighbor, unifies by the government opens up wasteland the use, this is also advantageous to the intensive land.Moreover must have the plan to advance the old city, the old residential district transformation and the cityThe village transformation, such land potential may excavate.As the real estate enterprise, to already obtains the land, certainly had to defer to the contract enlarge development dynamics, increased the market effective supplies.

third, must continue to safeguard the residence construct scale, processes the good housing safeguard and the market coordination relations.Starts us from March always to have this suggestion.The current some place storage quantity room quite are few, some place storage quantity room quite are many, in the storage quantity room quite big area, we hoped the local authority can the means which purchases through some storage quantity Fang Fangyuan solve the economy to be suitable Fang Fangyuan, the solution relocation places Fang Fangyuan, causes the housing safeguard and market coordinated development.Moreover must pay attention adjusts the housing the supply structure.Adjusts the housing supply structure to have an important thought, is must satisfy the different crowd the housing demand, can achieve the low end to have the safeguard, the end can guarantee the supply, Gao Duan also must have the product.Some big cities, Gao Duan the product very much has the market in particular, for instance in August 8 star river bends the project which develops in Shanghai, the sales volume are quite good, explained needs some high end project in Shanghai this kind of international metropolis, only then can satisfy the different crowd like this to the housing demand, achieves goal which has occupies.

fourth, must certainly carry out the local people's government in the stable real estate market aspect responsibility.Because the real estate market regional characteristic is very strong, this point already manifested in the middle of the 131st document.Should allow the local authority to be able to consider its policy execution according to the local market conditions.Now some house prices rise the excessively quickly area, for instance some places have already adjusted two anteroom policies, some places have already increased the land supply dynamics.We after believed passes through 07, 08, 09 year market shifts, the local authority already had this ability in the regulation real estate market aspect, we also believed the local authority was can undertake the stable real estate market responsibility.This question from the July 9 starts, we including leads for the State Council raises suggested, we always are base on this guiding ideology.Is took national the policy, must certainly be stable.Has why certainly to be stable? Is because present real estate market return to warmer weather situation although is may, but the foundation is unstable.

fifth, must process good current guarantees the growth, guarantees the livelihood of the people and the long-term steady development relations, strengthens to the real estate medium and long-term development targets and the policy research.Specially to “35” real estate development plan policy research.The real estate policy quite is complex, has take the housing safeguard as the primary coverage housing community policy research, moreover the real estate took the national economy pillar industry, must strengthen to the industrial policy research, but also has the real estate to take the national economy the barometer, it and the macroscopic economical relations is close, therefore must strengthen to the macroeconomic regulation and control policy research.The macroeconomic regulation and control policy mainly depends on the credit, the tax revenue short-term policy solves.We believed the tripartite policy has all-around considered, our real estate market steady development greatly hopeful.

in brief, we hoped through the stable policy, the stable supply, the stable house price stabilizes the real estate market, in has experienced 2007 blind development, after 2008 adjustment and in 2009 ago several month fast return to warmer weather, we to maintain the real estate market return to warmer weather the situation, prevented the house price excessively quickly rise, some sincerer understanding, we rational many, mature have been also many, our real estate enterprise decision-making stratas also certainly must realize to the market major rises and falls and the house price major rises and falls to the country, to the enterprise, to the common people all is disadvantageous.We must certainly persist the good faith brand, the social responsibility idea, rational takes, rational development.

thanks Mr. a Zhu Zhong, will meet down us please to have the renowned economist, central bank monetary policy board member, Chinese Reform Foundation National economy Research institute Manager Fan Gang Mr. invited Mr. Fan Gang! Mr. Fan Gang lecture subject: In macroscopic economic resurgence froth dispute--Future macroscopic policy adjustment direction, invited Mr. Fan Gang! Origin: website construction